I have been watching, reading, and observing events leading up to China’s 70th V-Day Anniversary Parade. Festivities are still on-going, and I definitely feel proud that China is on the right track.
I do hear however a lot of bitter snickers and derision that to me seem way off point…
For example, in the U.S., I hear some Americans snicker at the parade saying, oh … but all that military might is useless outside China’s borders. Just how does China plan to take that force to Japan … or Philippines … or any place further than that: China’s navy will be outgunned and the PLA is doomed from the start.
To that, I answer, that is not the point. At least not yet. Irrespective of how far China can project its military power outside its borders offensively, the primary point of the military parade is to show its defensive posture … and that the Chinese government’s own assessment that China is safer than it has been in the last two hundred years is actually backed up by real military power.
The U.S. strategic planning of an air, sea, and land attack on the Chinese Mainland is well publicized in the last few years. One point I got from the parade is that if the U.S. truly wanted to give that a try – just as it had fancied dropping nuclear bombs on the Chinese border during the Korea War – the U.S. should now take into account that China is a lot more prepared than any time in recent history for foreign aggression. China has no intent of projecting military power all around the world … except to protect its growing global interests. To try to assess China’s military today in terms of global power projection is to miss the point of China’s military.
Second, I hear some Taiwanese compatriots complain what the point is of the celebration when Mainland’s “missiles” are still “pointed at” Taiwan. Some defense minister even went on record of saying that the main threat to Taiwan today is Mainland China …
As a “native Taiwanese” (本省人), I celebrate China’s keeping a military leash on Taiwan as a last resort. I love Taiwan. It is where I grew up, it is my homeland. Yet there are lines that must be drawn for people who don’t take responsibility … who will go to great length to threaten my homeland.
Today all around the world, few democratic governments are actually elected with a true majority … with the people’s true consent. Most get elected by a shaky plurality, with politicians playing petty partisan games.
If a green party member should gain control of Taiwan through a plurality of votes (that might come about because, say, of internal divisions among the Pan-Blue coalition) … and the nut decides to declare independence …. even if most Taiwanese people don’t want independence …
Should Beijing just stand helplessly by the side?
Even if – hypothetically – things should change … and a solid but slim majority does opt for independence … a large and core minority – me included – would still vouch to fight vigorously any such acts because we want ultimate reunification with the Mainland. There would be a legitimate full-scale civil war in Taiwan, and I’d want Beijing to back us, and to bring Taiwan back to the fold of Beijing.
So the fact of all those “missiles” “pointing at” Taiwan actually comforts me. It means the nation I see as China still exists, and has not forgotten about Taiwan. It means that the very nation which millions of Taiwanese would fight to defend will also fight for them when their homeland – their interests – get threatened … get hijacked by a pitiful few.
There are many things that cannot just be settled with polite talk (why has the U.S. carried out so many military campaigns around the world since the end of WWII, why has it not just resorted to polite talks … e.g. recently with Saddam, Gadaffi, Osama Bin Laden, Al quaeda, ISIS, etc.?). China’s unity is one of them. And China’s civil war technically has never ended in so many ways….
Guancha recently had an article describing that many Taiwanese has joined their Mainland compatriots in China’s V-Day Parade. I am glad to see many compatriots – including Lian Zhan – show up and wish I was personally there in Beijing. But there are still too many in Taiwan who are too scared or complacent or confused to speak up for China in this era of “freedom” hegemony.
Alas the world is an ever-changing place. China has overcome so many challenges in the last hundred years. Surely we can overcome today’s and tomorrow’s challenges. Our compatriots who sacrificed their lives for the defense of China in her darkest hours will expect at least as much.
Much of the West has missed this golden opportunity to reach out to China.
Regardless: from the ashes of yesterday, let’s give a cheers to commemorate the long road China has traveled, and let’s give Double Cheers to a future that is truly bright and filled with infinite opportunities.
Go China!
Ray says
I doubt the mainland will ever use force on Taiwan, even if the latter declared independence. China used force in the past because it has no other options. Today it is a joke to discuss war across the straits. Just study the closing campaign of the civil war of 1946-1949 where a large number of Nationalist generals and troops perform “qiyi(起义)” or “uprising for a righteous cause”. That phrase did not exist in western vocabulary. They have negative terms like switched side, betrayed, defect but nothing comparable to “qiyi” which has a positive connotation.
If one understand the Nationalist Revolutionary Army like I do, which I believe the mainland do, simply using material and persuasion will be enough to turn most Nationalist soldiers over. For example, what would an F-16 or AH-64 pilot choose, RMB 5 million and promotion, or death and infamy? It is actually relatively cheap even to pay RMB 1 billion to get a division or brigade commander to come over. The US actually used the same method to devastating effect in the 2003 Iraq war and the recent Libya civil war.
So the discussion of how mainland will launch an invasion, whether it is seaborne or airborne is subject matters for amateurs. As far as I am concern, the war is over when the PRC got admitted into the UN and recognized as the only legal government of China including Taiwan. Today’s over 1 million Taiwanese residents live and work on the mainland and treated as uber citizens. The Taiwanese politicians who advocate standing up to their so-called communist rivals and promote so-called independence are simply shabby politicians playing shenanigan to get elected. It is mainly due to them that Taiwan lagged further and further behind in social and economic development.
The massage of the victory parade is also very clear who those weapons were designed for. YJ-18: super sonic anti-ship cruise missile with a range of 500km, DF-21D: ballistic anti-ship missile with range of 2000km, DF-26: medium range ballistic missile with range of 3500km, H-6K: cruise missiles armed bombers with attack radius over 5000km, DF-31A: mobile ICBM with range of 12,000km, DF-5B: silo based ICBM with range of 15,000km. Taiwan is only 200km off the coast of the mainland!
Lastly, the announcement by Xi that the PLA will be reduced by 300,000 troops showed that mainland do not foresee any future conflict.
Ray says
Military parade in a typical Chinese home.
http://video.weibo.com/show?fid=1034:207ddb636f63fa36ba8e0319b5d2ec94
N.M.Cheung says
I don’t think there will be war over Taiwan Strait also, but my reasoning is that U.S. will not support Taiwan independence. Unless U.S. really go over the rail, and elect someone like Trump, and Greens want to commit suicide, there will be no declaration of independence. China could just impose a blockade over Taiwan, and no one will challenge the blockade.
tc says
I am also a native Taiwanese. And I totally concur with Allen.