Donald Trump has taken over the presidency and Obama’s foreign policy has taken to the scrapheap. Many other presidents try to aim to use their goodwill to set an example as a world power by Obama is just trying too much to impose America’s will over other countries at the same time, namely China and Russia, that ultimately backfired and made China and Russia less dependent on America.
In Russia’s example, the US has staged a coop against the Ukraine, which ultimately allowed Russia to annex Crimea and there are deep instability within the Ukraine. The US has paid terrorists to destabilize Syria and Russia has been trying to get rid of ISIS while the US has been hampering these efforts. Other sophomoric efforts by the US to embarrass Russia are with the IOC athletes ban and putting additional sanctions by blaming Russia for the ‘hacked’ elections ultimately are desperate actions by the US and does nothing but to piss Russia off while not hurting them.
In China’s example, the “Pivot to Asia” policy is Obama’s biggest mistake. Duterte will no longer be America’s lapdog in enforcing its win in the South China Seas, as much as the other ASEAN countries. The TPP, which is largely a rebuke against China’s trade policies will be scrapped, but China’s One Belt One Road Policy will largely go forward to counter America’s policy to China, Not to mention that President Xi has come out against US and Europe’s protectionist policies.
Ultimately the worst part of Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” policy is the buildup of military in the Asia Region. As a result, China has been spending more money on modernizing its military and prepared to counteract US’ capability. In Addition North Korea has built up nuclear capabilities and US did nothing about it except expecting China to deal with it.
As I said in the beginning, many other presidents try to focus on one region, Reagan in Russia, the 2 Bushes on the Middle east, Nixon Sino-Soviet Split. Obama’s foreign policy has been disastrous in the middle east, Russia and China. As a result, Russia and China has increased cooperation economically and politically which will not be broken for some time. This results that many foreign countries will be less dependent on the US and the west for the years to come. With Trump and many European countries turning more protectionist, many weaker Latin American, Africian, and other Southeast Asian will be looking towards China and Russia for help instead of the West.
N.M.Cheung says
Obama’s foreign policy was essentially a holding action, trying to strengthen a crumbling dyke of declining empire. Now that Trump is in charge it will be much more aggressive despite earlier rhetoric of withdrawal from the world. There will be more military expansion, a new Don demanding more tribute from its vassals, more confrontation to everyone. Obvious targets are China, North Korea, and probably even Cuba. As I said before, we probably have to thank Osama bin Laden for the grace period of 16 years for China to prepare for the on coming confrontation. The neocons has been itching to confront China since Bush Jr. and the spy plane incident. The diversion still works as ISIS will still be a hard nut for Trump to crack. The trade war is a given and a minor part. The more danger is the 7th fleet will be permanently around the South China Sea and Taiwan and challenging China’s sovereignty. The first week of Trump presidency has people saying he’s insane and psychotic, that he never admits mistake and double down on his mistakes.
pug_ster says
The thing about spy plane incident is that US sends spy planes all the time close to China’s border all the time and Bush was smart enough to not to make it a tit-for-tat escalation with China over this issue despite what the Neocons wants to do. If Obama wants to have an Pivot to Asia to Asia policy, it should try to work with Russia against China, not going against both Russia and China at the same time.
Allen says
In my view, I agree that Obama’s foreign policy failed – but not because what you write here. In Urkaine, I believe Obama’s policy has succeeded in some ways, the West is now directly challenging Russia in its immediate periphery. Russia may think it has annexed Crimea, but the West can keep its rhetoric that Russia is merely occupying it … and wait for the right opportunity to make its next step.
As for S. China Sea, the West has a tight rope around China … with S. Korea deploying THAAD, Japan building up its arms forces and ever ever diluting its “pacifist” constitution, Vietnam warming up to U.S. … As for Philippines, don’t count it in as a friend. It can shift just sudden. With its orchestrated UNCLOS “win” – it together with U.S. can wait for the right time to justify whatever action they want in the S. China Sea – in the name of “freedom of navigation” and “international law.”
I think U.S. is definitely still top dog, it can win in so many ways.
But what the U.S. is missing out on is the opportunity cost. If it seeks peace and harmony with China first – the U.S. can focus so much of its energy on itself and ensuring its prosperity for the next 100 years at least. Now, it is just a short candle that is burning out way too fast… and Obama burnt it faster…
AS for Trump, we will see. Remember to separate the tactical from the strategic. If Trump aims to strike a “better deal” with China … then that is all fine. Rhetoric notwithstanding, China should strike a deal to get what it wants and to allow U.S. to get what it wants.
For example, if China and U.S. can work out a “better” higher exchange rate, then so be it. China might export less but Chinese companies might be allowed to build factories here, employing more Americans. Chinese companies have been trying to do that for a while, but the U.S. gov’t has been against it. If the U.S. reverses its all pervasive suspicion against Chinese companies in U.S., employing U.S. workers, that would be a win-win.
Strategically, I think China has space to talk to Trump to see if he might be interested in a new “great power relations” between the two nations. Obama just laughed it off… preferring to set up a tactical win against China at the expenses of a mutual strategic win for both.
alanking says
@Allen
crimea will always be Russian. I can see the EU splitting up before NATO tries anything more than talk on Crimea. On Trump certainly Xi would like to negotiate with him, perhaps even use the opportunity to give some goodies to Trump and at the same time persue more reforms on the State enetrprises. But you can only negotiate if the other side is sincere about negotiation. With some one like Peter Nvarro as chief, it would be foolish not to prepare for a trade war. Hope for the best, plan for the worst would be the best policy, anything less would be, imo, negligent.