I wrote before the election why I prefer Hillary over Trump because she will be a competent leader managing the slow decline of American Empire, while Trump will be an incompetent megalomania accelerating the decline and endangering the world. Now after more than a year into his presidency, his incompetence is in full display, and his danger to the world is worrying everyone from liberals to conservatives in Washington. With Bolton, a super hawk as his new security advisor, Pompeo, heading the State Department, with Iran nuclear deal to be undone by May, possible ultimatum meeting with Kim soon, war with both Iran and North Korea not only possible, but probable, and trade war with China pales into insignificance.
I agree with pundits that all those moves may be distractions of the nets closing on Trump, from Mueller investigation, from Stormy and her coming revelations on “60 Minutes”, or even the salacious elements from Steel Dossiers which nobody took it serious before. Yet I can’t shake the feeling of doom those old Hollywood movies used to make me laugh becoming reality, “Manchurian Candidate”, “Wag the Dog”, and “Dr. Strangelove”.
Certainly Trump took the deep state by surprise by agreeing to meet Kim Jong-in. Yet unless U.S. agrees to dismantle the empire by no longer threaten the existence of North Korea by signing a peace agreement, in which case troops in South Korea and Japan cease to have any purpose, I don’t see the meeting other than an ultimatum by Trump and will go no where. Trump may has vilified Hillary’s vote on Iraq and call Iraq War a mistake, but he now has hired the architect of Iraq War, Bolton, and defense spending is going up by double digit percentages to “Make America Great Again”. Kim maybe forced by China enforcing the UN sanctions, his failing economy, lack of oil, his people’s starving to make the offer. His sincerity is actually irrelevant, but I don’t see him surrender to U.S. on that ultimatum. For China, a denuclearized Korea is in her interest, and China is doing her best to make it become a reality, but she should be prepared for the worst.
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pug_ster says
While I agree with you that Trump would speed up America’s decline, Trump is better than Hillary in terms of treatment of China. If Hillary was president by now, it would’ve formed some kind of economic blockade via the TPP with other countries against China. However, most of the trade tariffs against China at this point is mostly unilateral. Again, same as the military. At most, they got Japan to its side, but most of the other countries don’t have military aggression against China.
With Trump incompetence, many countries are starting to fall in favor to China instead of the US. I was so surprised about Xi’s 10 step plan against Trump’s tariff’s against China but most of the other countries just step to the sidelines.
About Bolton, I would imagine that Syria would feel some hurt as well as Venezuela might go to disarray within the next couple of years. Iran would probably hold itself out and North Korea is just a bridge too far. In the year 2000’s the US was able to get support from its allies to fight its wars, it won’t get it this time.
Even if the US managed to get its troops to fight against its countries on the topple list, it will be mostly a unilateral action as the US won’t get much support from its allies this time. Or even worse, it will support terrorists to do its dirty job like what happened in Syria and Libya.
N.M.Cheung says
@alanking
I agree with both of you that in a perverse way Trump is better than Hillary for China, but as a Chinese American I do have mixed feeling that it’s worse for U.S. and world in general in the chance for a nuclear war with North Korea is increasing, though it’s not clear what’s in store for future as I wrote my comment to NYT, that with Trump and Kim both is desperate straits, Trump with Mueller and Stormy on his heels, and Kim with restive and starving population with China joining the sanctions, and a possible Nobel Peace Prize in store, that Trump may yet give North Korea a peace treaty and eventual troop withdrawal from South Korea. Thought that will mean standing down of American Empire, and whether the deep state will allow it to happen. Remember Reagan accepted Gorbachev’s offer of banning of nuclear weapons, and his aides immediately overruled him and blamed it on his Alzheimer.
alanking says
@pug_ster
Yes, the only reason other countries are less likely to join the US in more regime change operations is because the POTUS is Trump! If it is Hillary, it would have been a different story. Thus in a perverse way, Trump is better than Hillary!
pug_ster says
@N.M.Cheung
Trump is all gallon no hat. He talks about wasting more money on military but he talks about removing troops from Syria. Obama is shrewd where he pays terrorists peanuts to fight it’s wars whereas Trump does not do that. The kind of damage caused but supporting terrorists does more damage for way less money. This talk of protectionism of trump is hurting US more and more.