Living in U.S. one can’t help but be aware of the biases and distorted views against China, but for the hermit kingdom it must be 10 times more so. We’ll probably not know why North Korea started the peace offensive for a while, whether China joining in enforcing UN sanctions push them over the edge? The defector crossing with worms in his bowel, the dead fishermen found in boats drifting to Japanese islands, the nuclear testing mountain might has collapsed under the repeated tests, or even the bluster of Trump threatening nuclear preemptive strike. But one thing is certain, the coming meeting between Trump and Kim will determine war and peace, not only in Korea peninsula, but the world in general.
For Donald Trump, under assaults by Stormy and Mueller, it will be a welcome distraction from his travails. It will showcase his showmanship of deal making with a Nobel Peace Prize in grasp if he can pull it off. The question is whether the deep state will allow him the luxury of starting to dismantle the empire. Trump campaigned to make America great again, a more isolationist foreign policy with allies paying a major share of the burden of empire, but if peace reigns in Northeast Asia, what possible justification will there be for maintaining troops in South Korea, or for that matter in Germany or Britain?
For North Korea, the dream is always a strong unified Korea. They have pay a price of tightened bellies to achieve nuclear weapons and missiles. Yet U.S. will not tolerate the threat implicit in it and in danger of spiraling out of control to all out war. A peace treaty guaranteeing their survival and eventual conciliation with South Korea. South Korea with their economy showing North they can also achieve it with peace. For South Korea living under the gun from North this is an opportunity they can’t afford to miss. They might not want to incur the cost West Germany did to absorb East, but gradual improved relation and offers of help they can certainly afford. As relation warms up, eventually they will feel the burden and indignity of U.S. troops and demand their withdrawal.
For China this is win-win. A nuclear free Korea is China’s goal all along. China wants friendly neighbors whether a unified Vietnam or Korea. China do not want to annex other countries as portrayed by West. West don’t understand for China, space is the frontier.
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pug_ster says
While I believe that the eventual reunification of North and South Korea will be good for the region, I am not sure what kind of country will the unified Korea look like. IMO, China actually enjoys a split Korea because North Korea is considered a buffer state for China and the US.
The reason for the presence of US troops in the DMZ is not because of North Korea, but because of China. Will the US normalize relations with North Korea like what they did to China during the Nixon Administration? If the reunification takes place, will there be a presence of US troops along China’s border?
For me, if China’s soft power manages to overtake the US as a preferred partner, it will be a win. Otherwise, I think it will be worse for China.
N.M.Cheung says
@pug_ster
The unification of Korea if possible will be a long way off. I don’t expect it to happen even if Trump-Kim summit is a success. China doesn’t need Korea to be a buffer if Korea is unified without U.S. troops and nuclear free, and the major pre-condition for unification is the withdrawal of U.S. troops which I think South Koreans will want it too without threat from the North.
pug_ster says
@N.M.Cheung
I respectfully disagree with you on this one. One of the tricks up America’s sleeve is the divide and conquer technique when the US was able to take advantage of the Sino Soviet split and this led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the late 1980’s, the US subverted China, try to cause chaos within China and try to have them overthrow the government. It wasn’t until the Tienanmen incident and then the relations between US and China went downhill from there.
Going back to North Korea. Let’s say that the US gives North Korea everything that they want, peace treaty, US troops leaving Korea and helping North Korea to give power in the united Korean government. Just like what happened in China in the late 1980’s, somehow the CIA backed goons planted people to get rid of pro-Chinese within the Korean government. Then this united government will invite the US back into the Korean Peninsula and China will be worse off than before. I am hoping that Korea won’t be played as a pawn in this conflict between US and China.
vspam says
@pug_ster
Agreed.I can almost guarantee that this would happen.
Sadly, China soft power skills is like a baby, while the West have psych ops and media dis-informantion down to a science. Once unified, pro-Chinese within the Korean government would be replaced. Pro-US politicians would get the backing of Western media and organizations that will paint them as independent and in favorable light for the world, while pro-China would be painted as authoritarian and Chinese’s lackey. The media will paint China as anti-Christian, anti-Korean’s independence. At first a unified Korean economy would suffered. The West and Japan is still the largest economic block in the world and they will follow US’s commands. A unified Korea would have to kowtow to the US in order to be brought into the economic fold of the West.
A pro-US unified Korea will increasingly become anti-Chinese. The West and the weight of the media will try to create insecurity in Korea in the same manner they did to the former Soviet states. Korea would then join a military alliance with US with military bases across the Yalu river. By then China can do anything about without looking like a bully and an aggressor.
Anyone who doubt the US and Western deceits haven’t learn much from history. US has managed to destroyed its competitions by backing coup around the world. The blue prints to contain China are the same blue print US and the West are deploying in former Soviet states. No most of those states are a part of NATO with US troops on their soil.
There is no way that Korea won’t be a pawn in this conflict. China and North Korea would be a fool to make a deal with the US. The West is not trustworthy.
N.M.Cheung says
@pug_ster
I understand your point, yet for China whether Korea will station U.S. troops is irrelevant and minor. For China the solution of Taiwan is paramount, and the fact of in case of nuclear war on the radiation fallout in Northeast and flow of refugees are the major reason China prefers a peaceful solution. When MacArthur pushes to Yalu River when China was in her infancy and today or in future is totally different. Koreans are a proud people. They won’t forget what U.S. did to them, even South Koreans I doubt they will be willingly allow permanent stationing of U.S. troops without threats from North.
pug_ster says
@N.M.Cheung @vspam
Guys,
While I am hopeful that an United Korea would be an independent Korea who is against American colonization, I am just cautious of what will happen. Would China’s soft power be powerful enough to pull away from American influence in 10-20 years from now? None of us know. Recently I saw a documentary about the remaining Koreans in Japan who are staunchly Pro-North Korean. Is this what is going to happen when the two Koreas unite? We don’t know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBfyIQbxXPs
N.M.Cheung says
@pug_ster
Recent news from “South China Morning Post” said that Chinese scientists have confirmed that the North Korea nuclear test site has collapsed and might pose risk of radiation leaks. This confirmed my speculation that the small earthquake days after the last nuclear test was probably due to the collapse of the mountain. So North Korea was forced to close the test site and threatening hydrogen bomb test over Pacific. Kim wants to make lemonade from lemon and agree to meet Trump. I am not too optimistic on anything will come out of the meeting.
alanking says
Imo all this talk about a unified korea is way too optimistic. The US record for the past umpteen years is not one of spreading peace, but sowing chaos and breaking agreement after agreement and treaty after treaty. Only insanely naive leaders will treat any treaty or agreement with the US at face value. “Trust but verify” used to be Reagan’s cliche, but any sane or sensible leader should have ” dont trust and have a backup plan” as part of the mission when negotiating with the Hegemon.
pug_ster says
@N.M.Cheung @alanking
With the recent Moon and Kim meeting today, I think there are going to be a few things happen in a next months based on the US response. Because of the trump presidency, its leadership in the world has weakened significantly. In the 2000’s, it was China who tried to pull the 6 party talks but the US and Japan keep trying to torpedo them. Today, China has maintained good relations with the both Koreas and President Moon was able to unilaterally start peace negotiations with North Korea. Now the two Koreas will push for 4 way talks between them with China and the US, pushing aside Russia and Japan.
This agreement between the Koreas is reducing tensions and reducing the need for military aid from the US.
It is not going to make US’ military complex happy. Judging the tepid response from the US, my guess is that between the 4 way talks that the Koreas and China will try to push US out from the Korean Peninsula.
pug_ster says
It seems that the stars align that there will be peace in the Korean Peninsula this time for 3 main reasons.
1) Kim Jong Un- He no longer needs to do any more testing of nuclear weapons. Their weapons has been tested and is a real threat to the US.
2) Moon Jae In – He is a liberal president compared to the 2 other conservative presidents. Also, there has been a big push by President Moon himself considering that he has personal connections to North Korea (his parents are from there.)
3) Trump/Decline of American Empire – I think that this is the biggest factor. If Hillary was president, this would not happen at all because he falls in line to maintain of American Empire. Trump has more of an protectionist attitude and less of a world interventionist attitude. What more, if the stupidity of Trump himself. I’m willing to be that the Asian leaders know that Trump is a type of person who is looking for easy win and validation. China and South Korea probably told Trump that peace is good and even Moon recommended that Trump should get a Nobel price for this.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-should-win-nobel-peace-prize-says-south-korea-s-n870036
N.M.Cheung says
@pug_ster
The star may be aligned, but the empire may not agree to it. Trump I doubt could resist the allure of a Nobel Peace Prize to show off Obama, and a peace treaty is pretty straight forward beneficial to all parties except the military-industrial complex. Ronald Reagan agree with Gorbachev to abolish all nuclear weapons, yet his aides immediately walked back and blamed on Reagan’s Alzheimer.
alanking says
@N.M.Cheung
I agree with you. Even if stars are aligned, the Deep state is likely to demand complete surrender of all n korean nukes before lifting sanctions! Plus, what guarantees are there that Trump or the next potus will not renege, just like he is reneging on the Iran deal.
pug_ster says
It seems that the irrelevance of the US is showing. First Trump’s cronies Pence and Bolton flaunts about the “Libya’s Model” Then North Korea pulls out of the initial talks with South Korea. Then Trump don’t want to meet up with North Korea. Then North and South Korea decided again to meet with another bro hug. Now Trump is open up to meet with North Korea again.
It seems that South Korea and China is willing to help North Korea and denuclearizion will be a phased approach whereas US wants North Korea to denuclearize now but finding less support.