Archive

Posts Tagged ‘statistics’

Did Millions Die in the Great Leap Forward: A Quick Note on non-Contemporaneous Data

February 14th, 2013 11 comments

This is a followup on a previous post titled Did Millions Die in the Great Leap Forward: A Quick Note on the Underlying Statistics.  In that post, I pointed out that the only systematic data available from the time (the census of 1953 and 1964) were such that they could neither support nor refute the hypothesis that millions upon millions died during the Great Leap Forward.  The claim that 15 or 30 or even 45 million people died – true or false – simply is not testable against the margin of errors inherent with the 1953 and 1964 census figures.

In a comment, long-time commentator jxie referenced some of the so-called “newer” research involving non-contemporaneous data that I want to quickly address in this post.  One thing I failed to address in my prior post is that since the mid 80’s – with the release of  data such as the Cancer Epidemiology Survey in 1976, the fertility survey of 1982 giving fertility rates dating back to 1940, and the re-release of the 1953 and 1964 census in 1982 where the population figures are broken down by age and gender groups (“cohorts”) – many researchers have claimed that they are able to prove how many millions actually died during the Great Leap Forward.  Various reputable scholars 1 estimated the death count to be anywhere between 20 to more than 45 million.  I want to address such studies, focusing in particular on Banister’s 1987 study that jxie cited.

Banister’s 30 Million Dead Hypothesis

Judith Banister is one of the most respected and prominent demographer in the West on China.  In what has become a classic book published in 1987, Banister estimated that some 30 million died during the Great Leap Forward (p. 118, Banister). Read more…

Notes:

  1. For a discussion how it is a mistake to defer the study of politically charged subjects to “scholars,” see Joseph Ball’s article titled “Did Mao Really Kill Millions in the Great Leap Forward?” which I have linked in the previous post

Chinese extremely optimistic about nation

July 22nd, 2008 23 comments

More released from Pew Global Attitudes survey.  From the IHT/NYTimes: “Eighty-six percent of the Chinese surveyed said they were content with the country’s direction, up from 48 percent in 2002 and a full 25 percentage points higher than the next highest country, Australia. And 82 percent of Chinese were satisfied with their national economy, up from 52 percent.”

Categories: News Tags: , ,

Another statistic

July 17th, 2008 8 comments

Anton Lee Wishik II wrote about an interesting statistic while discussing polling in China: Read more…

Happiness levels in mainland China, Taiwan, Hongkong, …

July 5th, 2008 11 comments

Many of the headlines have focused on Denmark being ranked the happiest country in the world after a U.S. funded global survey was released at the beginning of this week. So where are the Chinese people ranked? And what about the two countries often used for comparison/contrast with China (i.e. Russia and India)?

Rank, Score, Country/Region
48, +1.83, Taiwan
54, +1.64, mainland China
63, +1.16, Hongkong
69, +0.85, India
89, -1.01, Russia

Note: a negative value means a majority of the population being unhappy. And remember, these are just statistics…

Read more…

Categories: News Tags: , ,