A report titled China’s Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction published earlier this month takes an optimistic view of China’s future prospects: “Beijing now seems likely to overcome potential stumbling blocks such as economic instability, pollution, inequality, corruption, and a slow pace of political reform.”
The full report, from Albert Keidel at the highly respected Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is available for download in .pdf format at the above link. The Carnegie Endowment is a think-tank with close links to the United States Department of State.
The report’s four primary bullet points are:
- China’s domestically driven economic expansion is not limited by export markets and can sustain high single-digit growth rates for decades.
- Beijing now seems likely to overcome potential stumbling blocks such as economic instability, pollution, inequality, corruption, and a slow pace of political reform.
- China’s economic size will match America’s by 2035, and double it by midcentury, with unclear but potentially wrenching strategic implications that demand U.S. economic and military reassessment.
- American policy makers should take this opportunity to enact wide-ranging domestic reforms and rethink their inherited concepts of global order.
I appreciate any such report which treats China’s “rise” as being inevitable. Not because it strokes my ego, but more importantly… if American policy makers begin to think in these terms today, it will dramatically reduce the chance of conflict between the US and China over the next 3 decades.