Home > Uncategorized > Don’t buy in the Coronavirus hype.

Don’t buy in the Coronavirus hype.

Right now many Chinese cities are on the lock down and at the epicenter of this outbreak at Wuhan people could not come in and leave the city. While I agree that there should be some preventative measures to stop this virus from spreading like cancelling public events, shutting down the city by shutting down transportation and schools are excessive.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-new-coronavirus-what-we-do-and-dont-know-2020012518747

Let’s step back to what is a coronavirus. According to this Harvard article:

Coronaviruses are an extremely common cause of colds and other upper respiratory infections. These viruses are zoonoses, which means they can infect certain animals and spread from one animal to another. A coronavirus can potentially spread to humans, particularly if certain mutations in the virus occur.

So yes, coronaviruses are common cold virus but this is a particular new strain which started in Wuhan. The problem with this virus is that many people who gotten this virus don’t show much symptoms and could be carrying the virus for days before we get sick. But to think about it, people don’t usually get really sick from the common cold either. For all we know, that this virus has spread far and wide already without knowing about it.

We also have to think about how many people who are infected vs the number people who actually died from this virus.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-01-24/china-coronavirus-panic

https://www.livescience.com/56598-deadliest-viruses-on-earth.html

The Latest data is 4474 infected and 107 dead. That’s little more than 2%. To put that in perspective, many other viruses such as Ebola and smallpox outbreaks has been more higher mortality rates than this coronavirus. Heck, the common flu killed hundreds of thousands every year and there is no pandemic for this.

To put in perspective of the last coronavirus, SARS, I believe that this was also overblown. This virus eventually faded away because people had overcome and developed an immunity for this virus. This will happen to this coronavirus.

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  1. Ngok Ming Cheung
    February 1st, 2020 at 15:00 | #1

    Well the infected and total deaths both have more than doubled during the last 3 days, and we have the testimony of frontline doctors that it was obvious spreading from human to human contacts and to the medical workers by early January. If actions were taken then it could have been easily contained. Yet despite the damages to the economy and patients, with Western media starting to blame it on Chinese government. I think this is a blessing in disguise. My take is lessons learned from this episode actually vindicated Xi’s policy. Xi has been trying to resurrect some of Mao’s policies. After all the Cultural Revolution was initiated because Mao felt the bureaucracy was isolated from the people and need to be shake up. despite the growing wealth and economy, the wealth gap is increasing. There is a lot of push back against Xi’s anti-corruption and poverty alleviation policies, his shakeup on bureaucracy, sacrifice of some GDP for environment (Green water and mountains are the real gold and silver.), certainly the pushback from U.S. on tariffs and Huawei to force China from climbing the technology ladder and state enterprises. Even private hospitals and medicine worsens people’s expectation on healthcare.
    I’ll list some of the positive fallouts from the Coronovirus and U.S. pushback.
    1. “Serve the People” revived to mean real test for p[arty members. (continue)

  2. Ngok Ming Cheung
    February 1st, 2020 at 15:15 | #2

    (continue )
    2. Those officials failed the test will be removed and revitalize the bureaucracy.
    3. A real test better than any simulation showing possible weaknesses and remedies.
    4. I always yearn that China be isolated during the Vietnam War and move on her own, and now it’s real isolation although due to the virus and U.S. policy on restricting students and professors. If China do it on her own it would not be accepted.
    5. China learns who’s real friends and enemies.
    6. Total unity for Chinese people

  3. February 1st, 2020 at 23:10 | #3

    Lots of misinformation out there in the media. Don’t know where to start. But here is a video from ground zero.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvXwqPbYgGo

    People are fine in Wuhan. There is a public health crisis – or at least a potential public health crisis – but on an individual people daily life level, people are staying put and doing fine.

    Some numbers to put things in perspective.

    Coronovirus thus far, 300 or so dead out of some 14,300 confirmed cases – about 2% death rate. Transmission rate has not been established, but estimates range from 1.4-5.5 transmission per person.

    Just as a comparison, let’s look at the common flu. According to the US CDC, influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

    For this season thus far, the CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 19 million flu illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from flu.

    Let’s also look at swine flu. Here is one summary:

    In 2009, a new kind of influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged in the United States and spread quickly around the world. Initially known as “swine flu,” this particular subtype of virus contained a novel combination of influenza genes that hadn’t previously been identified in animals or people. The virus was designated as (H1N1)pdm09.

    Very few young people had any existing immunity to the virus, but about 1/3rd of people over 60 had antibodies against it. Because it was very different than other H1N1 viruses, the seasonal vaccinations didn’t offer much cross-protection either. When a vaccine was finally made, it was not available in large quantities until late November, after the illness had already peaked.

    The CDC estimates that between 151,700 – 575,400 people died worldwide during the first year that the (H1N1)pdm09 virus circulated. About 80% of those deaths are believed to have been people younger than 65 — which is unusual. During typical seasonal influenza epidemics, 70-90% of deaths occur in people over 65.

    Now, I’m not saying that the coronovirus is not a big deal. But let’s keep perspectives. Comparing numbers thus far, the Swine flu virus was much worse. Much much worse. And we had no sealing of cities or closing of flights (U.S., Russia, India, etc.).

    My mom goes to her yoga class here in Silicon Valley and people are asking her whether she had been to China recently. In her temple, people asked one person who coughed a couple of times to go home.

    Better careful than sorry? Or are we just hyperscaremongering?

    Coronovirous is an H1N1 virus. It is not a superbug. Compared to the common cold, it is neither more lethal nor more contagious. It is just another regular – albeit new – type of flu virus. The CDC estimates that fewer than half of Americans get the flu vaccine every year. That means, over half of Americans put themselves to coronovirus type sickness every year being exposed to the common cold.

    As for rest of world, it’s even worse…

    Think about that…!

  4. pug_ster
    February 2nd, 2020 at 06:23 | #4

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/first-coronavirus-death-outside-china-reported-philippines-n1128371

    I just saw an article yesterday about the first death outside China from someone who came from Wuhan but one thing about this article that is interesting.

    “Philippines health secretary Francisco Duque III said the man also suffered from streptococcus pneumoniae and influenza.”

    This makes you think that if he got killed because of this Coronavirus or other viruses in his system. I’m not denying that this viruses is not out there, but if this virus is the one which killed that many people.

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